中国增长动力切换、时空演变与“双门槛”测度 ——来自省际层面的经验证据
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作者单位:

1.云南师范大学;2.昆明市社会科学院

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F752.7

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国家社会科学基金项目


Economic Growth Spatial-temporal Volution, Dynamic Measurement and Switching Threshold
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Affiliation:

1.Yunnan Normal University;2.Institute of Industrial Economics, Kunming Academy of Social Sciences

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    摘要:

    中国经济增长依赖于劳动和资本的双轮驱动,文章运用分地区、时段回归的方法,将劳动分为低技能劳动和高技能劳动,资本分为生产资本和研发资本,利用不同地区行业层面数据,研究中国经济增长动力切换问题,得出结论:一是中国经济增长动力整体经过低技能劳动+生产资本、高技能劳动+生产资本、高技能劳动+研发资本三个阶段;二是东部沿海与北部沿海地区处于高技能劳动+研发资本驱动状态,南部沿海、长江中游、黄河中游、西南地区和东北地区处于高技能劳动+生产资本驱动状态,而西北地区仍处于低技能劳动+生产资本驱动状态;三是中国经济增长动力不同时段驱动力存在差异,2001年至2005年、2006年至2010年两个时期多为低技能劳动+生产资本驱动、2011年至2015年多为高技能劳动+生产资本、2016年至2022年东部沿海和北部沿海切换为高技能劳动+研发资本驱动;四是中国经济增长动力切换存在门槛效应,研发资本投入本身存在先高后低的“双门槛”,而高技能劳动为研发资本投入设置了单一的“高门槛”。据此,文章针对不同地区,提出了动力切换的相关对策建议。

    Abstract:

    China"s economic growth relies on the double-wheel drive of labor and capital. This paper uses the method of regression by region and time period to divide labor into low-skilled labor and high-skilled labor, and capital into conventional capital and R D capital. By using industry-level data of different regions, this paper studies the switching of China"s economic growth power and draws the following conclusions: Firstly, the overall driving force of China"s economic growth goes through three stages: low-skilled labor + conventional capital, high-skilled labor + conventional capital, and high-skilled labor + R D capital, Secondly, the eastern and northern coastal regions are in the high-skilled labor + R D capital driving state, the southern coastal regions, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, the southwest and northeast regions are in the high-skilled labor + conventional capital driving state, while the northwest region is still in the low-skilled labor + conventional capital driving state, Thirdly, the driving force of China"s economic growth varies in different periods of time. From 2001 to 2005 and 2006 to 2010, it was mainly driven by low-skilled labor and conventional capital; from 2011 to 2015, it was mostly driven by high-skilled labor and conventional capital; from 2016 to 2022, it was driven by high-skilled labor and R D capital in the eastern and northern coastal areas. Fourthly, there is a threshold effect in the switch of driving forces of China"s economic growth. There is a "double threshold" for R D capital investment, while high-skilled labor sets a single "high threshold" for R D capital investment. Accordingly, this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions for power conversion in different regions.

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引用本文

庞磊,陈晓磊.中国增长动力切换、时空演变与“双门槛”测度 ——来自省际层面的经验证据[J].技术经济,2024,43(1):152-163.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-05-29
  • 最后修改日期:2024-01-24
  • 录用日期:2023-08-23
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-02-26
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