Abstract:Based on the theory of social welfare, the social loss measurement index (SL) is constructed according to the social welfare loss model. And then the SL statistical values of non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals, and energy and chemical futures are calculated, and the social loss brought by the prediction deviation of futures price from spot price is estimated. The main conclusions are as follows: the closer the futures contract is to maturity, the higher the market efficiency will be when the time limit is 7 to 3 months. In terms of the statistics of inevitable social loss, non-ferrous metal futures market has the least loss, followed by energy and chemical futures and ferrous metal futures. According to the average of SL statistics, energy and chemical futures market has the highest efficiency, followed by ferrous metal futures and non-ferrous metal futures. From the perspective of different futures varieties in the same category, the market efficiency and robustness of different futures varieties are quite different.