Based on the analysis of the time series dada about grain direct consumption of Chinese rural household during 1978 - 2004. the paper summarises the main character of each stage and describes it with model. We predict the grain direct consumption quantity per capita with the selected forecast model and calculate the whole demand considering on the popuhtion change and civilization movement in the future， The conclusion is that the direct grain consumption is becoming less and less and will be stable at 2015. from that on the whole quantity will go down ton.