Taking a part of a real refined oil distribution system as the study base, the paper describes the basic structure and contents of a modern oil distribution model. Based on statistic data ,the paper presents the whole process of building a prediction model for daily demand on refined oil. Using this model, we can simulate next-day's oil demand and then forecast the transportation capacities to meet the demand. The paper builds up the foundation for the model to realize active distribution and provides illustration for practical applications.