With the fast economic development,the energy demand is delarging year after year,especialy the oil demand. The supply of oil is a hot problem. The condiion of oil reseves in china is not good. Most oil field has been at the stage of mining metaphase or mining anaphase. The increase of oil production is very difficult. Facing the rising oil demand increasingly, the forecast of oil production scientificly and exactly in the future has realism significance to the plan of oil demand and oil stratagem repertory. So,accoding to the characteristic of oil production of our country, this text sets up the Verhulst model , the forecasting precision is high by testing and it forecasts the oil production from now to 2020.