技术创新扩散动力机制及测度研究
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1.首都经济贸易大学;2.北京物资学院

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F064.1

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Research on the dynamic mechanism and measurementof technology innovation diffusion
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1.Capital University of Economics and Business;2.Beijing Wuzi University

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    摘要:

    本文基于技术创新扩散传播和驱动的双重视角下研究技术创新扩散的动力机制。首先,围绕创新主体和创新客体基于技术创新扩散方式的视角提出了技术创新扩散传播机制,并应用Bass模型对其传播机制进行测度;围绕创新主体、创新客体和创新中介基于技术创新扩散驱动要素的视角提出了技术创新扩散的驱动机制,并应用空间计量模型对其驱动机制进行测度。其次,运用2001-2018年中国五类城市(288个地级以上城市)的ICT数据对其创新扩散传播机制和驱动机制进行实证分析。结果表明:Bass模型能够有效测度五类城市ICT创新扩散的传播机制,且五类城市之间存在显著差异;面板数据固定效应动态SAR模型能够更全面测度五类城市ICT创新扩散驱动机制,时间、空间和时空滞后效应驱动显著,同时从宏观、中观和微观等视角测度并分析了对五类城市的驱动效果,得出一系列有价值的研究结论。

    Abstract:

    This paper studies the dynamic mechanism of technological innovation diffusion from the dual perspectives of spread and driving mechanism of it. For the first time, the spread mechanism of technology innovation diffusion is put forward from the perspective of the spread mode of it based on innovation subject and innovation object, and its spread mechanism is measured by Bass model. The driving mechanism of technology innovation diffusion is put forward from the perspective of the driving factors of it around the innovation subject, the innovation object and the innovation intermediary, and the driving mechanism is measured by the spatial econometric model. Secondly, the ICT data of five categories of cities (288 cities at or above the prefecture level) in China from 2001 to 2018 were used to conduct an empirical analysis on the spread mechanism and driving mechanism of it. The results show that Bass model can effectively measure the spread mechanism of ICT innovation diffusion in five types of cities, and there are significant differences among the five types of cities. The fixed-effect dynamic SAR model of panel data can more comprehensively measure the driving mechanism of ICT innovation diffusion in five types of cities, The driving effect of time, space and space-time is significant. Meanwhile, the driving effect of five kinds of cities is measured and analyzed from the perspectives of macro, meso and micro, and a series of valuable research conclusions are drawn.

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胡文玉,王文举.技术创新扩散动力机制及测度研究[J].技术经济,2020,39(9):89-100.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-08-03
  • 最后修改日期:2020-09-03
  • 录用日期:2020-08-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2020-09-28
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