高速铁路建设时机:基于我国城市面板数据的计量分析
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1.北京交通大学 经济管理学院;2.国家开发银行内蒙古自治区分行

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U2-9

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国家社会科学基金项目


Optimal Timing of High-speed Railway Construction: Econometric Analysis Based on City Panel Data of China
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1.School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University;2.National Development Bank Inner?Mongolia Branch;3.School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University

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    摘要:

    高速铁路建设时机影响运输资源配置效率与机会成本,也会影响区域社会经济发展。本文从建设时机影响机制入手,建立了由城市经济属性、城市社会属性与城市区位属性等的综合触发时机分析框架。以高速铁路有无作为因变量,运用触发机制模型分析高速铁路建设时机。实证结果显示,城市经济属性是高速铁路项目建设的主要影响因素,其中,可支配收入水平每提升1%,高速铁路建设触发概率会提高0.9%以上;城市的市场潜力或第三产业区位熵每提升1%,高速铁路建设触发概率会提高0.8%左右。当人均可支配收入达到8万元时,东中西部均可有效触发高速铁路建设。社会属性与区位属性并不能单因素引致高速铁路的触发机制。

    Abstract:

    The timing of high-speed railway construction affects the allocation efficiency and opportunity cost of transportation resources, as well as regional socio-economic development. Starting from the construction timing influence mechanism, a comprehensive trigger timing analysis framework consisting of city economic attributes, social attributes, and location attributes is established. With with-or-without HSR as the dependent variable, the construction possibility is measured accordingly. The empirical results show that, the city economic characteristics are the primary influencing factors for high-speed railway construction, of which, an average 1% increase in disposable income will lead to more than 0.9% increase in possibility of the provision of high-speed railways, and an average 1% increase in urban market potential or the tertiary industry location entropy will lead to 0.8% increase in possibility of the provision of high-speed railways. Quantitatively speaking, RMB80,000 per capita disposable income is the threshold for the construction of HSR nationwide. Social and location attributes alone cannot trigger high-speed railway construction if other variables are kept constant.

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李红昌,刘悦,王新宇,陈佩虹,于克美.高速铁路建设时机:基于我国城市面板数据的计量分析[J].技术经济,2021,40(12):96-104.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-05-03
  • 最后修改日期:2021-12-09
  • 录用日期:2021-10-19
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-01-13
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