行业视角下减排成本估算及减排路径研究
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1.广东金融学院 经济贸易学院;2.中南财经政法大学 经济学院 武汉

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F246

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国家社会科学基金项目


Research on emission reduction cost estimation and emission reduction path from the perspective of industry
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1.School of SEconomicsSandSTradeS,Guangdong University of FinanceS;2.School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

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    摘要:

    碳达峰碳中和是中国经济发展环境治理的战略目标,减排成本与减排路径是该战略实施中两大现实问题。基于行业视角,利用投入产出方法,对行业减排成本、技术减排效应及减排路径展开研究,基本结论如下:①行业减排成本差异大,整体减排成本逐年上升。在三个代表性年份行业最高与最低减排成本相差40-60倍,减排成本绝对差值在1500-3000$/t。在2000-2010年间, 32个行业减排成本均有不同程度的上升, 全社会整体减排成本上升了56.98%。②技术进步的减排贡献较大,部分行业技术减排有限。在产出固定假设下,2000-2010年技术进步实现累计减排57.09亿t,累计技术减排率达到47.88%;但在旅游、住宿餐饮等行业技术减排率为负,技术因素导致的排放不减反增。③行业减排路径应遵循从高碳到低碳的顺序。基于减排成本与技术减排两大因素的减排路径规划显示,优先和重点减排行业主要集中在能源生产供给、加工制造、交通运输、采矿及设备制造等高能耗高排放行业;可相对延后和非重点减排行业主要为食品烟草等传统加工制造业以及金融、房地产等现代服务业。

    Abstract:

    Carbon neutrality is the strategic goal of China"s economic development and environmental governance, and emission reduction costs and emission reduction paths are two major practical issues in the implementation of this strategy. Based on the industry perspective, this paper uses input-output methods to study industry emission reduction costs, technological emission reduction effects and emission reduction paths. The basic conclusions are as follows:1) There is a big difference in the cost of abatement in the industry, and the overall cost of abatement is increasing year by year. In the three representative years, the difference between the highest and lowest abatement costs in the industry was between 40-60 times, and the absolute difference in abatement costs was 1500-3000$/t. Between 2000 and 2010, the cost of reducing emissions in the whole society increased by 56.98%. Except for one industry, the cost of reducing emissions in 32 industries has increased to varying degrees. 2)The contribution of technological progress to emission reduction is relatively large, but the effect of technological progress in emission reduction in some industries is limited. From 2000 to 2010, technological progress has reduced a total of 5.709 billion tons of emissions, and the cumulative technological reduction rate has reached 47.88%. In industries such as tourism, accommodation and catering, the rate of technological emission reduction is negative and the contribution of technological emission reduction is limited. 3)Industry emission reduction should follow the order from "high carbon" to "low carbon". Priority and key emission reduction industries are mainly concentrated in energy production, processing and manufacturing, transportation and other industries. Non-key emission reduction industries are mainly concentrated in industries such as traditional processing, manufacturing and service industries.

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吴立军,曾繁华.行业视角下减排成本估算及减排路径研究[J].技术经济,2022,41(4):120-129.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-22
  • 最后修改日期:2022-03-29
  • 录用日期:2022-03-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-20
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