碳市场与股票市场间的风险溢出效应研究
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华北电力大学

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F831. 5; F224

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The Risk Spillover Effect between Carbon Market and Stock Markets
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North China Electric Power University

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    摘要:

    研究碳市场与股票市场间的风险溢出,深层次揭示其中的内在机制与规律,对于有效防范碳金融风险具有重要意义。本文基于广义预测误差方差分解构建溢出指数,从静态和动态两个层面捕捉中国碳市场与电力、材料、房地产、工业、金融、传统能源、新能源等股票板块市场之间的风险溢出强度和方向;在此基础上,进一步从复杂网络视角构建“碳-股票”系统的风险溢出网络,识别风险的中心与演化。结果表明:碳市场与股票市场之间存在一定的风险溢出,碳市场是各股票板块市场的风险净接收方,但不同板块的影响具有非对称性,其中新能源市场的影响最大。在宏观经济波动和有关政策出台时,碳市场与股票市场之间的风险溢出也会发生波动;工业板块市场是“碳-股票”系统的风险中心,基于上述结论提出了相关政策建议。

    Abstract:

    It is significant to study the risk spillover effect and reveal the internal mechanism and rule between China’s carbon market and seven stock sector markets of Power, Material, Real Estate, Industrial, Finance, Traditional Energy and New Energy to prevent carbon financial risks effectively. According to the generalized forecast error variance decomposition model and the complex network method, a spillover model was constructed to capture the static and time-varying spillover effect, and a connectedness network was founded to identify the centre and evolution of risk. The results indicated that China’s carbon market is a net receiver of risk from stock sector markets. The characteristics of the spillover effects and the net spillover relationships between China’s carbon market and diverse stock sector markets had differences. Among them, the new energy market has the most significant spillover effect on the carbon market. In addition, policy changes and macroeconomic shocks can impact the time-varying spillover. The industrial market is the centre of the connectedness network. Based on these conclusions, some policy suggestions are put forward.

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王喜平,王婉晨.碳市场与股票市场间的风险溢出效应研究[J].技术经济,2022,41(6):131-142.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-11-30
  • 最后修改日期:2022-05-21
  • 录用日期:2022-04-24
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-05
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