Low carbon transformation is an important practice to promote the sustainable development of agriculture, but the existing research lacks in-depth discussion on the path of agricultural low carbon transformation. Based on the MLP framework, this paper constructs a theoretical model of agricultural low-carbon transformation from the three aspects of micro grass-roots level, meso system level and macro landscape level, and uses NCA and fsQCA to analyze the case data of 31 provinces in China, so as to explore the antecedent configuration of the path of agricultural low-carbon transformation. The results show that: (1) the six pre-set antecedents do not constitute the necessary conditions for the low-carbon transformation of high / low-level agriculture. (2) There are five paths to drive the low-carbon transformation of high-level agriculture, which are specifically divided into two groups: the leading mode of "digital foundation + Digital finance" and the leading mode of "scientific research manpower + machinery investment". (3) There are obvious differences in the path of agricultural low-carbon transformation in eastern, central and Western China. The research not only deepened the understanding of the theoretical mechanism of agricultural low-carbon transformation, but also provided policy suggestions and practical guidance for the work of agricultural low-carbon transformation.