中国城镇化对交通运输业碳排放的空间效应研究
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作者单位:

1.河海大学商学院;2.河海大学 商学院;3.河海大学公共管理学院

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F424.1

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2021年国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“数字经济赋能制造业高质量发展与产业化实现研究”(21FJYB047);中央高校基本科研业务专项资助(B200207043、B210207018)。


Research on the Spatial Effect of Urbanization on the Carbon Emission of Transportation Industry in China
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1.Business School of Hohai University;2.School of Public Administration of Hohai University;3.Business School,Hohai University

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    摘要:

    基于2010-2019年中国30个省份的面板数据,利用动态空间杜宾模型实证分析了人口、土地、经济多维度城镇化对交通运输业碳排放水平长期和短期的影响机制及空间溢出效应。研究结果表明:中国交通运输业碳排放存在显著的空间相关性和“时间惯性”。(1)人口城镇化、土地城镇化和经济城镇化都对本地区交通运输业碳排放产生显著的促进作用,且长期影响要大于短期影响,其中,人口城镇化是推动本地区交通运输业碳排放增长的主要动力;人口城镇化对相邻地区存在显著的正向空间溢出效应。(2)分区域来看,人口城镇化会显著抑制东部地区交通运输业碳排放的增长,但能够促进中西部地区交通运输业碳排放的增长,而东、中、西地区土地城镇化和经济城镇化对交通运输业碳排放均产生显著的正向促进作用;东、中部地区人口城镇化对交通运输业碳排放产生显著的正向溢出效应,东部地区经济城镇化具有显著的正向溢出效应。(3)分阶段来看,两个阶段城镇化(人口、土地和经济)对交通运输业碳排放的长期影响均普遍高于短期影响,城镇化对交通运输业碳排放的影响程度在不断加深。

    Abstract:

    Based on panel data of 30 provinces of China from 2010 to 2019, a dynamic spatial Durbin model was used to empirically analyze the long-term and short-term spatial spillover effects of multi-dimensional urbanization in terms of population, land and economy on the carbon emission of transportation industry. The results show that there are significant spatial correlations and ‘temporal inertia’ in the carbon intensity of transport industry in China. (1) Population urbanization, land urbanization and economic urbanization all have a significant role in promoting the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the region, and the long-term impact is greater than the short-term impact. Among them, population urbanization is to promote the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the region. The main driving force of growth; population urbanization has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on adjacent areas. (2) From a regional perspective, population urbanization will significantly inhibit the growth of carbon emissions from the transportation industry in the eastern region, but it can promote the growth of carbon emissions from the transportation industry in the central and western regions. Urbanization has a significant positive role in promoting carbon emissions in the transportation industry; population urbanization in the eastern and central regions has a significant positive spillover effect on carbon emissions in the transportation industry, and economic urbanization in the eastern region has a significant positive spillover effect effect. (3) In terms of stages, the long-term impact of urbanization (population, land and economy) on the carbon emissions of the transportation industry is generally higher than the short-term impact in the two stages, and the impact of urbanization on the carbon emissions of the transportation industry is deepening.

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田泽,肖玲颖,刘超,王雨璇,任阳军.中国城镇化对交通运输业碳排放的空间效应研究[J].技术经济,2023,42(1):141-153.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-10
  • 最后修改日期:2023-02-27
  • 录用日期:2022-11-17
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-10
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