东道国交通基础设施质量对中国进出口贸易的 影响研究 ——来自“一带一路”沿线 51 个国家的证据
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新疆财经大学国际经贸学院

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F752.7

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国家社会科学基金西部项目“以中哈产能合作促进区域命运共同体建设研究”(18XGJ002)。


Study on the Influence of Host Country’s Transport Infrastructure Quality on China’s Import and Export Trade:Evidence from 51 Countries along the Belt and Road
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1.School of International Business and Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics;2.China

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    摘要:

    加强交通基础设施互联互通是推进“一带一路”高质量建设的关键。为此,基于 2011—2019 年“一带一路”沿线 51 个国家的面板数据,建立固定效应模型实证检验东道国不同类型交通基础设施质量分别对中国出口与进口的影响,结果表明:①总体来看,东道国不同类型交通基础设施质量对中国进口的促进作用大于出口;②从中国对东道国出口来看,港口基础设施质量对中国出口推动作用最强,随后依次是公路与航空基础设施质量,而铁路基础设施质量的影响不显著,从中国自东道国进口来看,公路基础设施质量对中国进口促进作用最大,其次是港口基础设施质量,而铁路、航空基础设施质量的影响较小;③通过中介效应检验发现东道国交通基础设施质量会通过降低贸易成本而促进中国进出口贸易增长;④交互项分析发现东道国公路、铁路基础设施改善对港口与航空基础设施及港口基础设施改善对航空基础设施贸易促进作用具有正向溢出效应,而公路基础设施改善对铁路基础设施贸易促进作用具有负向溢出效应。

    Abstract:

    Enhancing transport infrastructure connectivity is the key to promoting high?quality Belt and Road construction. Based on the panel data of 51 countries along the Belt and Road from 2011 to 2019,a fixed?effect model was established to empirically test the impact of different types of transport infrastructure quality of host countries on China’s export and import respectively. The results show that the quality of different types of transport infrastructure in the host country have a greater promoting effect on China’s import than its export. From the perspective of China’s export to the host country,the port infrastructure quality has the strongest effect on China’s export,followed by the highway and aviation infrastructure quality,while the railway infrastructure quality has no significant effect. From the perspective of China’s import from the host country,the quality of highway infrastructure has the largest promoting effect on China’s import,followed by the quality of port infrastructure,while the quality of railway and aviation infrastructure has little influence. Through the mediation effect test,it is found that the transport infrastructure quality of the host country will promote the growth of China’s import and export trade by reducing trade costs. The interaction term analysis found that the improvement of road and rail infrastructure in the host country has a positive spillover effect on port and aviation infrastructure and port infrastructure improvement on aviation infrastructure trade promotion,while the improvement of road infrastructure has a negative spillover effect on railway infrastructure trade promotion.

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胡颖,李维.东道国交通基础设施质量对中国进出口贸易的 影响研究 ——来自“一带一路”沿线 51 个国家的证据[J].技术经济,2023,42(1):77-89.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-08-12
  • 最后修改日期:2023-02-24
  • 录用日期:2022-12-05
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-10
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