多维不确定性对企业投资决策的影响及其异质性分析——来自中国上市公司的经验证据
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湖南农业大学商学院

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F230

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国家自然科学(72203059);湖南省自然科学(2023JJ40336, 2022JJ40515, 2020JJ4380);教育部人文社科项目(22YJCZH078);湖南省教育科研基金(22B0195)


The Impact of Multidimensional Uncertainty on Firms'' Investment Decisions and Heterogeneity Analysis: Empirical Evidence from Listed Companies in China
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Business School, Hunan Agricultural University

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    摘要:

    全球性的突发事件和经济气候风险给企业带来了不确定性,为探究不确定性对企业经营决策和投资行为的影响,本研究以2013-2022年中国A股上市公司为样本,结合经济政策、贸易政策、气候政策不确定性和地缘政治风险,探究其对企业投资的影响特征与作用机理,并进一步分析在企业投资类型、所有制性质与行业类型三个方面的异质性。研究发现:(1)四种不确定性均会抑制企业投资,但抑制程度有差异;(2)经济政策不确定性与地缘政治风险阻碍企业固定资产投资和金融资产投资但促进研发投资,贸易政策不确定性恰好相反,而气候政策不确定性阻碍以上三种类型企业投资;(3)贸易政策与气候政策不确定性对不同行业、不同产权性质企业的投资影响的差异性大于另外两种不确定性;(4)不确定性能通过融资约束途径、企业外部需求渠道影响企业投资,且企业增长机会能缓解不确定性与企业投资之间的关系。

    Abstract:

    Global contingencies and economic climate risks create uncertainty for firms. To explore the impact of uncertainty on business decisions and investment behavior of firms, this study commences with a theoretical comparative analysis of the impact mechanisms of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU), Government Policy Risk (GPR), and Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) on corporate investment decisions. Subsequently, we empirically test these mechanisms using experiential data from Chinese listed companies from 2013 to 2022. Building on this, a more in-depth analysis is conducted to explore whether different types of uncertainties exhibit significant differences in their impact and dynamic effects on corporate investment decisions across various dimensions, including ownership structures, investment types, and industry sectors. The findings indicate that: (1) All four types of uncertainty dampen business investment, but the degree of dampening varies. (2) EPU and GPR impede fixed and financial asset investments but promote R D investment. TPU increases fixed and financial asset investments but suppresses R D investment, while CPU hinders all three types of corporate investments. (3) The differential impact of TPU and CPU on corporate investments in different industries and with different ownership is greater than that of EPU and GPR; (4) Uncertainties affect corporate investment through financing constraints and external demand, with enterprise growth opportunities mitigating the uncertainty-investment relationship.

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王红,江园芳,李海玲,周萍.多维不确定性对企业投资决策的影响及其异质性分析——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].技术经济,2024,43(10):98-110.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-08
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-16
  • 录用日期:2024-03-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-05
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