媒体情绪、国际油价波动与股市预测:基于UMAP-LSTM和ISOMAP-GBR的混合模型研究
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中国计量大学现代科技学院

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F273

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浙江省软科学项目资助“低碳能源技术研发网络:涌现机理、演化路径及效应跃升”(2025C35066)


Media Sentiment, International Oil Price Volatility, and Stock Market Prediction: A Hybrid Model Study Based on UMAP-LSTM and ISOMAP-GBR
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Modern Science and Technology College,China Jiliang University,Jinhua

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    摘要:

    在国际油价波动的背景下,为了深入探索媒体指数、宏观经济变量以及选定技术指标对中国股票市场的影响。通过构建UMAP-LSTM和ISOMAP-GBR两种预测模型,成功准确预测了来自不同行业的10家我国上市公司的每日股票价格。研究结果表明,这两种模型均表现出高度的预测准确性,并且,在模型中融入媒体指数后,相较于未考虑媒体因素的模型,在统计上取得了更优的预测效果。这一发现强调了媒体相关信息在解释股票市场变动中的核心地位。进一步的分析揭示,全球和中国的媒体炒作指数对股票价格变化具有显著影响,媒体炒作的加剧可能导致市场下跌,这反映了媒体情绪对投资者行为和市场趋势的重要引导作用。此外,媒体指数之间的相互作用也对股票价格产生了显著影响,进一步证实了媒体情绪在驱动股票市场波动中的关键作用。研究结论不仅为投资者提供了更为精确的股票市场预测工具,还揭示了媒体情绪在金融市场中的重要作用,为政策制定者、市场监管机构以及投资者提供了有价值的参考和决策依据,有助于更深入地理解和应对金融市场的波动。

    Abstract:

    In the context of fluctuating international oil prices, an in-depth exploration was conducted to investigate the impact of media indices, macroeconomic variables, and selected technical indicators on the Chinese stock market. By constructing two prediction models, UMAP-LSTM and ISOMAP-GBR, the daily stock prices of 10 listed companies from different industries in China were successfully and accurately predicted. The research results indicate that both models demonstrate high predictive accuracy, and the incorporation of media indices into the models resulted in statistically superior prediction performance compared to models that did not consider media factors. This finding emphasizes the central role of media-related information in explaining stock market fluctuations. Further analysis reveals that global and Chinese media hype indices have a significant impact on stock price changes, with increased media hype potentially leading to market declines, reflecting the important guiding role of media sentiment on investor behavior and market trends. Additionally, the interaction between media indices also has a significant effect on stock prices, further confirming the crucial role of media sentiment in driving stock market volatility. The research conclusions not only provide investors with more accurate stock market prediction tools but also reveal the important role of media sentiment in financial markets, offering valuable references and decision-making bases for policymakers, market regulators, and investors, and contributing to a deeper understanding and response to financial market fluctuations.

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赖俊明.媒体情绪、国际油价波动与股市预测:基于UMAP-LSTM和ISOMAP-GBR的混合模型研究[J].技术经济,,():.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-05
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-09
  • 录用日期:2025-09-08
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