| 摘要: |
| 利用渭河典型支流千河流域千阳水文站控制区域20个气象站2006—2013年的小时降水以及同期水文站的流量和水位数据，基于泰森多边形法、三参数幂函数法、一元非线性回归模型以及概率分布模拟等方法确定了千河流域不同等级洪水发生时对应的面雨量阈值，同时也计算了不同重现期的致洪临界面雨量。研究表明：三参数幂函数模型对水位与流量的关系模拟精度较高，模型能够模拟典型年份发生的洪水；典型控制断面流量主要受前9 h累计降水影响；当汛期水位由901 m升高至超标准水位时，千阳水文站控制流域的致洪临界面雨量增加了将近50 mm，而相应的洪峰流量相差1418.51 m3∙s−1；对数皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布能够很好地模拟洪峰流量的概率分布；10—100年重现期下，控制断面水位增加高达2 m。 |
| 关键词: 洪水 致灾临界面雨量 水位流量曲线 渭河流域 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE192021 |
| CSTR：32259.14.JEE192021 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:宝鸡文理学院校级重点项目（ZK16062）；陕西省气候中心山洪灾害风险普查、区划和影响预评估能力建设项目；
国家自然科学基金项目（41771048） |
| 英文基金项目:Key Scientific Fund of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences (ZK16062); Program for Mountain Torrent Disaster?Risk Survey, Zoning, and Impacts Assessment of Shaanxi Climate Centre; National Natural Science Foundation of?China (41771048) |
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| Evaluation of critical storm duration rainfall for a typical tributary of the Weihe River: a case study in the Qianhe River Basin |
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CHENG Aifang, SU Xiewei, HUANG Rong, REN Yuanxin
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Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disasters Monitoring & Mechanism Simulation, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope Climate variability is shown to be an important driver of spatial and temporal changes in hydro-meteorological system. And the influence of climate variability on flood damage has received more attention, especially for larger rivers, in China. Improvement in watershed management for small and medium-sized river is still an especially important topic in the nation. Flood-prevention project have already implemented in the main stream and their tributaries for the Yellow River. However, extreme flood only occurred in small rivers with less convergence time and lack of flood control works. Upper and middle reaches of the Weihe River is mainly loess hilly-gully region, this can result in large economic losses when the storm have happened. Critical areal rainfall is a crucial indicator for flood monitoring and forecasting, especial for some key small and medium-sized rivers short in source and in flow. Therefore, to calculate that indicator by using multiple statistical methods based on observed hydro-climatic data and to apply its use, are of great importance for river management and for reduction of water disasters in the small watershed scale. Materials and methods Calculation critical areal rainfall of flood are evaluated based on the hourly observed data of hydro-climatic time series for the period of 2006—2013, by using Thiessen Polygons method, power function with three parameters, non-liner regression model and probability distribution simulation, in a typical tributary of the Weihe River Basin. Results The results showed that power function with three parameters can simulate the statistic relationship between water level and discharge. The model can also display strong performance in well demonstrate the process of large typical flood in the Qianhe River. Cumulative precipitation before nine hours has great impact on discharge of monitoring cross section. Critical storm duration rainfall for Qianyang hydrological station increased up to 50 mm when the water level rise from 901 m to flood exceeding the designed elevation, and the peak discharge also raised by 1418.51 m3∙s−1. Log-Pearson 3 revealed high performance in simulate probability distribution of peak discharge in the study region. The corresponding critical areal rainfall for different return periods were computed, and water level raised more than 2 m when return period change from 10 years to 100 years. Discussion The power function with three parameters and non-liner regression model showed well performance in this study, however, advanced verification also should be taken when these methods used in other different weather conditions and complex terrains. Cumulative nine hours rainfall corresponding to the peak discharge was adopted in the article, and this time period should be dynamic change under local geographic conditions. Conclusions Disaster early warning information should be given to the public when the cumulative rainfall rose to 16 mm and the corresponding water level for the control hydrological station is 901 mm. Recommendations and perspectives Good knowledge of critical storm duration rainfall under the changing climate can provide great scientific and practical merits for flood simulation and forecast, and also benefit to water resource management in the basin scale for the government. More importantly, it can prevent disaster caused great damage to the society. |
| Key words: flood critical storm duration rainfall stage-discharge relation curve Weihe River Basin |
